Has time run out?

May 16, 2016 Joel Jorgensen

I’m not real happy about typing another blog post about nothing, as in no news to report.   At this point, the facts are well known.   The window in which we would expect at least one of the Capitol’s Peregrine Falcons’ eggs to hatch is closing by the minute.   In my blog post last week in which I calculated hatching probabilities for one or both eggs, I estimated a 0% probability an egg would hatch on 16 May and thereafter.  One of the critical assumptions was the incubation period is 33-35 days.  This is based on information from the Birds of North America, a solid scientific source.  Even though this is based on good information, there are always outliers and exceptions to averages and expected ranges.  Furthermore, I counted the day an egg was laid as day one rather than day zero.  Maybe that was the incorrect decision?


So if you are still holding out hope, there is a reasonable basis for it, but we are down to 2 strikes and 2 outs in the fourth quarter with no time left on the clock and your best player is in the penalty box with a red card.   It is time to put the Hail Mary pass in the air and hope for the best.  Hail Mary throws works every once in a while, right?

Good birding!

Nongame Bird Program


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